Yin Yan: Yesterday Sunday, let’s take a closer look at the detailed new energy vehicle production data and power battery data in April. Tesla continued to maintain a high level in April and produced 11,211 units. Most of them are standard versions of 51.8kwh according to the average power. . Weilai has produced 3,008 units and Ideal has produced 2,893 units, both of which are good results. The traditional car joint venture Volkswagen produced a total of 7,346 units, BMW 2,871 units, mainly in PHEV; while the numbers of BYD, GAC and Changan were 10,315, 4,441 and 3,929 respectively, and the number of traditional companies has not climbed up this month.
Note: The data source is GGII
01 Production of new energy vehicles
BYD is still in the first echelon, but it is currently overpowering Tesla, and it is estimated that this situation will continue for a while; The unique channel characteristics can support the rapid recovery of sales, and there may be some changes in the follow-up when the channels of 4S stores are smooth.
Figure 1 Production of new energy passenger vehicles in April
The cumulative output of BYD and Tesla in 2020 is 28,917 and 27,892, respectively, with a gap of only 1,025 units. Later, as Tesla further reduces the price of the standard version, this style of play is very sturdy. Next, Tesla, which has taken another 4 billion loan, will continue to expand its factories and upgrade production capacity. Now domestic companies do not lack products, but they need to upgrade and iterative products. A good product can be hit by a dozen, and there is a situation in which the three British and Lu Bu are fighting in terms of product power. Of course, as the price of Model 3 sinks, various problems are exposed, and various things about Tesla itself will also lead to the collapse of word of mouth. There is a game process here.
Figure 2 Trend of BYD and Tesla production in 2020
From the perspective of capital, new car companies are trying their best to use the advantages of the Internet and centralized regional sales to increase the sales of new energy vehicles in this gap. This round of new car companies is more about taking money continuously, being able to stably suppress their negative news, and keep trying new business models. Because everyone has seed customers, how to cultivate the second batch of customers in the second car, these experiences and lessons can be summed up well.
Figure 3 The performance of new car companies in the first four months of 2020
The new energy vehicles of its own brands are greatly affected by the overall situation. This year, GAC seems to be working hard, and other companies have made certain adjustments, not only BAIC and Geely, but everything you can think of has an impact.
Figure 4 The situation of traditional car companies
02 Power battery output
The installed capacity of power batteries in April was about 3.60GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 33% and a month-on-month increase of 30%. The overall amount is distributed in this way, and the amount of domestic batteries is basically concentrated. The total volume of CATL is 1.876GWh, of which 622.5MWh is installed in commercial vehicles and special vehicles.
Figure 5 The situation of installed capacity in April
In the single passenger car field, with Tesla’s high demand all the way, LG Chem’s volume ranks second. It is estimated that this position is relatively stable. After the demand for some long-range versions comes out, the production capacity climbs to 4,000 weeks and may be stable. Around 900MWh-1GWh.
Figure 6 Distribution of installed capacity of new energy passenger vehicles in April
In passenger cars, CATL’s customers are really broad. At present, Weilai, Ideal and Xiaopeng are the top customers in a single month. This result is surprising. The characteristic of PHEV is that there are more vehicles installed, and fewer batteries are absolutely required for battery installation. And pure electric vehicles with a lot of power are directly challenged by Tesla, and the overall volume is limited. The supply situation is as follows:
Figure 7 CATL’s passenger car customers’ vehicle loading, installed capacity and single-vehicle capacity in April
In the process of weight, it is worth paying attention to GAC and Changan. The weight of GAC is divided as follows:
The division method of Changan, as shown below, is divided according to different battery life and different platforms.
Summary: Generally speaking, April 2020 is still in the recovery period, and the worst market environment has passed. Of course, there will be a wave of shutdown and turnaround in the future, but China’s new energy vehicle market as a whole is gradually recovering.