Morgan Stanley: TSMC and PSMC will be cut off in the fourth quarter as soon as possible

Malaysia is a major bottleneck in the automotive and server supply chain, although the production capacity of packaging and testing plants is sluggish. However, Morgan Stanley said that overall semiconductor demand may be overestimated, and it has seen weaker demand for smartphone, TV and computer semiconductors, LCD driver IC, niche memory and smartphone sensor inventory will have problems, it is expected For foundries such as TSMC and PSMC, orders will be cut in the fourth quarter of this year at the earliest.

Morgan Stanley said the latest report shows that 14% of the global chip packaging and testing capacity is located in Malaysia, especially Texas Instruments (TI), STMicroelectronics (STM), ON Semiconductor (ON Semi) and Infineon (Infineon) from the United States. European IDM plant capacity. Affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Malaysia’s packaging and testing factories began to implement partial blockade in June, and the average capacity utilization rate until September was only 47%, which caused downstream manufacturers to continue to over-order PMICs, MOSFETs and MCUs, so chip shortages continued to be reported.

After Morgan Stanley discussed with back-end suppliers, suppliers expected that Malaysia’s chip production capacity could improve significantly in November and December.

Morgan Stanley said that due to the impact of Malaysia, the production capacity of automobiles and electric vehicles in mainland China is still affected by the shortage of automotive chips; server production capacity is also limited by specific power ICs, such as those from Texas Instruments, AOS and Anson. Midea’s power IC, which will further depress server DRAM prices in the fourth quarter. However, if Malaysia is blocked, global car and server production capacity is expected to recover.

The overall semiconductor demand may be overestimated. Morgan Stanley said that it has seen weaker demand for smart phones, TVs and computer semiconductors. There are inventory problems in LCD driver ICs, niche memory and smart phone sensors. It is expected that TSMC and For foundries such as NSMC, orders will be cut as soon as the fourth quarter of this year.


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